From the Bretton Woods system to the global non-system: The trials and tribulations of slow learning

In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global ‘non-system', in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call ‘Taylor-rule macroeconomics'—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.

Financial Crisis and its Effect on Psychological Well-Being, Health, Satisfaction, and Financial Incapability, A Systematic Review

Background and Objectives: The decline in GDP caused by the global economic recession of 2008 and that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the poor economy of countries around the globe with increased rates of unemployment and adverse job conditions. This systematic review aims to identify the impact of a Financial crisis on Psychological well-being, Life satisfaction, Health Satisfaction, and Financial Incapability. Methodology: The literature included in the review was searched from Feb 1, 2023, to March 26, 2023, by using the PUBMED database as the search engine. Studies discussing the impact of the financial or economic crisis on psychological well-being, Health, Life satisfaction, and Financial Incapabilities published in the English Language were included in this review whereas systematic reviews and metanalysis, case reports, articles published in languages other than English and articles with limited access were excluded. Result(s): Of the 26 articles found eligible for the study, there were 22 Quantitative studies, 2 qualitative studies, and 2 Mixed Method Studies. Most of the articles included in this study discussed the Global Economic crisis caused by COVID-19 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Almost 80% of the studies included in this review discussed psychological well-being and the prevalence of psychological disorders including Depression, Anxiety, Stress, Fear, Loneliness, Burnout, and Suicide whereas the rest of the articles discussed mortality regarding mental disorders. Conclusion(s): Financial crisis or economic recession results in an increased prevalence of common mental disorders affecting psychological well-being by increasing rates of unemployment and adverse job conditions. Policymakers with competitive financial behavior and knowledge are essential elements for psychological well-being and life satisfaction.Copyright © 2023 Lahore Medical And Dental College. All rights reserved.

Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets

This paper employs the Tail Event NETwork (TENET) to identify financial markets with greater potential risk, and simultaneously investigate the interdependence between them. We find strong time-varying connectedness across 23 emerging markets during the main crisis episodes, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, using data from January 1995 to May 2021. The network analysis revealed that emerging European markets are top risk transmitters, whereas emerging Asian markets are top risk receivers. China showed disconnection from the network, reflecting its diversification potential for investors. Our findings offer several policy and regulatory implications. • We investigated the tail-event network dependence of 23 emerging markets;• Tail-Event NETwork (TENET) technique has been employed;• We show that European emerging markets are top risk transmitters, while Asian economies are top risk receivers;• Chinese market is decoupled from the rest of markets analysed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

A Critical Study on Impact of Covid - 19 on the Decision of High School Graduates in India Planning to Study Abroad

Higher education has not been immune to the widespread disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, commonly known as COVID-19. Colleges have quickly evolved and adapted to this new normal, from leaving campuses to investing in online instruction and assisting students and staff remotely. However, international lockdowns have had a devastating effect on graduating high school students who had planned to study abroad. According to a survey by Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), a highly revered annual publication of global ranking for educational institutions, more than 48% of Indian students intending to study abroad changed their minds because of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study aims to discuss how the pandemic affected students' decision-making on a wide range of factors. The study's goals are to determine whether the coronavirus affected college students' plans to study abroad, including how it influenced the students' interest in pursuing their higher education and how factors such as financial breakdown, parental emotion, and fear of the pandemic have impacted students' intentions to study overseas. The research will collect and analyze primary data quantitatively to test the hypothesis and provide solid evidence for the goals. The study's findings reveal that students' perspectives differed, suggesting that some students considered deferring their overseas education plans in response to the worsening epidemic. In contrast, others embraced the option of studying online, either in India or Abroad (by enrolling in hybrid or roaster classes).Copyright © 2022, Anka Publishers. All rights reserved.

The Austrian State and the COVID-19 Crisis: Achievements and Failures of a Small European Country During the Pandemic Since 2020

The financial crisis from 2008 onwards had already led to a "return of the state” in many countries. This tendency intensified in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic from the beginning of 2020—as well as in Austria. This chapter asks several research questions on the Austrian state's handling of the pandemic in comparison with the other members of the European Union (EU). The most important are: What were the consequences of the pandemic in the areas of public health, the economy and the labour market;and what successes and failures were achieved in combating the pandemic? It is clear, however, that only an interim assessment can be made;a "definitive” comparative survey of the state performance of the EU members will be possible only in the years to come. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022, corrected publication 2022.

Combination forecast based on financial stress categories for global equity market volatility: the evidence during the COVID-19 and the global financial crisis periods

The 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic both decrease economic growth and lead to high uncertainty in global stock markets, and financial stress information is closely linked to financial crises. To improve the predictability of the realized volatility of the global equity indices during crises, we examine the predictive role of the Global Financial Stress Index (GFSI) and its categories. We find that the combination predictions based on GFSI's five incorporated categories and three region-based categories outperform the predictions based on the raw GFSI for most indices. Specifically, the DMSPE combination model with a low discount factor has accurate forecasts for 5- and 22-day-ahead realized volatility, and it also performs better than the equal-weighted and the trimmed mean combination methods. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the predictive role of financial stress information in stock market volatility during crises, and the empirical evidence provides a positive case against the ‘forecast combination puzzle'. Our findings are very instructive for policymakers and investors to make their own short-term and long-term plans in crisis. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Measuring economic crises impact transitioning to a circular economy.

Increasing global concern about climate change and the circular economy have successfully established itselves in international and national policies over the last decade, with the aim of reshaping the production and consumer behavior. The circular economy is one of the core pillars of European Union policy and its success depends on the energy efficiency, reducing production costs, and maintaining employment levels by ensuring continuous strong economic independency of the region. While crises are unavoidable and continue to appear, this paper aims to project the impact of any crisis on sustainability transitions using data analysis of the Global Financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 and discuss how the success of the circular economy implementation and environmental policies could be affected. The paper notes that the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 had a short-term positive impact on environmental degradation and that economic interests overshadowed environmental goals. Due to the recent events of the ongoing Russia and Ukraine war, COVID-19 societal and industrial behavior has shifted from sustainable to linear and has taken a step backward in reducing environmental pollution and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Analysis of already present data and the context of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, reviewing of COVID-19 impact on the global economy, health sector, and environmental policies allows us to predict the consequences, as it relates to the future of circular economy policy. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10668-023-03367-x).

How do governmental wage subsidies enhance SME resilience in the COVID-19 pandemic?

PurposeCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous negative effect on the economies around the world by infusing uncertainty into supply chains. In this paper, the authors address two important research questions (RQs): (1) did COVID-19 wage subsidies impact small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to become more flexible towards the SMEs' business customers and (2) can such flexibility be a source for greater resilience to the crisis? As a result, the authors investigate the relationship between governmental wage subsidies and SMEs' flexibility norms towards the SMEs' business customers (study 1). The authors further uncover when and how flexibility towards existing customers contributes to SME resilience (study 2).Design/methodology/approachThe authors frame the inquiry under the resource dependence theory (RDT) and behavioural additionality principle. The authors use survey methodology and test the assumptions in study 1 (n = 225) and study 2 (n = 95) on a sample of SMEs from various business-to-business (B2B) industries in Croatia.FindingsOverall, in study 1, the authors find that SMEs that receive governmental wage subsidies have greater flexibility norms. However, this relationship is significantly conditioned by SMEs' competitive profile. SMEs that strongly rely on innovation are more willing to behave flexibly when receiving subsidies, whereas SMEs driven by branding do not. Study 2 sheds light on when flexibility towards existing customers increases SME resilience. Findings show that flexibility norms are negatively related to resilience, but this relationship is becoming less negative amongst SMEs with lower financial dependence on the largest customer.Originality/valueThis study extends RDT in the area of firm-government relationships by showing that wage subsidies became a source of power for the Government and a source of dependency for SMEs. In such cases, the SMEs receiving those subsidies align with the governmental agenda and exhibit higher flexibility towards the SMEs' customers. Drawing arguments from behavioural additionality, the authors show that this effect varies due to SMEs' attention and organisational priorities resulting from different competitive profiles. Ultimately, the authors showcase that higher flexibility norms can contribute to resilience if the SME restructures its dependency by having a less-concentrated customer base.

Corporate governance in the COVID-19 pandemic: current practices and potential improvement

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on corporate governance and internal control in general. In addition, this paper attempts to develop a new corporate governance model that flexibly addresses conditions like those brought into the business environment by COVID-19. Design/methodology/approachThirteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with chairpersons, CEOs and directors from companies listed on the FTSE 350. FindingsThis study suggests a corporate governance model, which we call Eunomia, which we believe will help businesses to navigate the unusual conditions resulting from COVID-19 and similar types of crises that lead to major disruption for businesses and society. The model includes five pillars that support governance, namely, flexibility, IT infrastructure, risk management, internal control and policies and procedures. Practical implicationsImplications for practice and policymakers. Based on the research outcomes, the authors suggest that the board of directors establishes policies that ensure supply diversity and that businesses do not rely on a single or limited number of suppliers, thereby making themselves vulnerable to supply chain disruption with those suppliers. Originality/valueThis paper presents an original contribution to the accounting literature relating to corporate governance and internal control systems, specifically in terms of how businesses can optimally operate under uncontrollable conditions resulting from pandemics, and similar situations.

Human resource management in recession: Restructuring and alternatives to downsizing in times of crisis

In just over a decade two global crises have created significant instability across the world and plunged many national economies into recession. While studies of HRM during economic downturns are limited, the global impact of COVID-19 on employment adds impetus to the debate. Though downsizing and mass layoffs attract most attention, redundancies are just one potential response to challenging economic conditions, and various other employment adjustments might be viewed as complements or alternatives to workforce reductions. However, little is known about the implementation of HR practices or enactment of HR strategies during recession. Drawing upon 56 in-depth interviews, this article presents three case studies of recessionary restructuring in British manufacturing firms. The cases share a concern with mitigating redundancies and highlight the importance of actor agency as well as institutional and organisational context in shaping restructuring outcomes. The article contributes to HR theory regarding HRM in recession and employment restructuring.

Network connectedness of the term structure of yield curve and global Sukuks

This paper explores the connectedness between the returns and volatilities of the conventional and Islamic bond markets. We use the level, slope, and curvature of the US yield curve and estimate the connectedness of these factors with the Dow Jones Islamic indices (of 3 to 10 years of maturity) as well as the minimum connectedness portfolio. The static analysis shows that level and slope of the conventional yield curve are the net transmitters of shocks while the Islamic indices have been mostly at the receiving end. The dynamic connectedness analysis shows a varying degree of the connectedness over the full sample period characterized by distinctive trajectories of booms and busts. The pairwise connectedness analysis also confirms that level and slope are the net transmitters in the system with an exception in most recent times of Covid-19 pandemic. The findings have implications for the researchers, policy makers, regulators, shariah boards, investors, and fund managers.

Reevaluating the risk minimization utility of Islamic stocks and bonds (Sukuk) in international financial markets

We examine the risk minimization utility of Islamic stock and Sukuk (bond) indices by studying their linkages against traditional global counterparts. We first employ an asymmetric power ARCH-based ADCC model on an extended dataset employed by Kenourgios et al. (2016). Our sample ranges from July 2007 to June 2021 covering the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC), and the COVID-19 pandemic. Econometric tests suggest strong evidence of coupling in the bulk of Islamic equity indices. A handful of emerging market indices constitute exceptions. Qualitatively similar results emerge from time–frequency analysis via wavelet tools, revealing pervasive coupling in both returns and volatility series. The linkages are scale-dependent in only a few pairs. In contrast, Sukuk indices are uncoupled from their global fixed income counterparts and relevant risky debt portfolios. In sum, the risk-return characteristics of Islamic equities (especially in developed economies) remain coupled to major global benchmarks and therefore are unlikely to appeal as safe haven candidates. The converse applies to Sukuk, which promises potential portfolio diversification benefits and safe haven status in ‘normal' and crisis periods.

Analysis of the Impacts of COVID-19 using Deep Convolutional Neural Network

COVID-19 is the transmittable disease that emerged as a recent epidemic and threatened the lives of various people. The emerged pandemic initiated a change in the people's routine and impacted a serious financial crisis. This initiated a necessity for developing a deeper insight of the COVID-19 disease and multiple researches are performed based on the COVID-19 epidemic, which possess the challenges of basic analysis of information about the disease, lack of data, lack of knowledge about the parameters that cause disease and to overcome this a deep COVID-19 analysis epidemic via the deep CNN classifier is accomplished in the research. The impact of the disease is examined based on the gender, age group, symptoms and outbreak of the disease. This analysis provides comprehensive information about the disease and helps in making the preventive measures, which will greatly reduce the impacts of the disease. The accomplishment of deep CNN instinctively analyzes the essential features needed for the classification that helps in reducing the effort and time of the individuals. The performance is analyzed with the metrics specificity, accuracy and sensitivity, which obtained values of 0.48 %, 0.27 %, 2.82 % corresponding to and 2.88 %, 1.5 %, 0.36% considering training percentage, which is more efficient. © 2023 IEEE.

Restructuring Lessons from the Covid Pandemic: Bail-Out vs. Market Approach

Bail-out, bail-in, or restructuring? In this article, we argue that restructuring has its rightful place in macro crises, such as the Covid pandemic. A policy that primarily focuses on insolvency avoidance and bail-outs is misled as it creates unwanted risk incentives, distorts market selection and resource allocation, and reduces beneficial transformative pressure. As a crisis typically goes hand in hand with new and fundamental developments, the changing environment should be met by competitive innovation. Bail-outs which tend to preserve the status-quo may be justified as part of a comprehensive emergency strategy and to overcome temporary market dysfunction. Such a response strategy, however should always be designed in concert with restructuring options. We propose amendments to the German insolvency and restructuring laws to address the shortcomings of restructuring/insolvency uncovered during the Covid pandemic. The goal is to improve the restructuring/insolvency regime so that it can better deal with the specific challenges of macro crises.

The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1?2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises.

Do the macro and global economic factors drive the nonperforming loans in GCC economies?

PurposeThe current study aims to investigate the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the GCC economies during the period spanning 2000 to 2018. It also examines whether the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008, which brought the issue of non–performing loans to the greater attention of academics and policymakers, had a substantial impact on NPLs in this region.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of 53 conventional banks from GCC countries, and the basic data for the study is obtained from various sources such as Bankscope, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank and Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. The estimations were done by dynamic panel data regression modeling using system generalized methods of moments.FindingsThe findings reveal that both, the non-oil real GDP growth rate and inflation have favorable effects on NPLs. On the other hand, domestic credit to the private sector and the volatility index have an adverse effect on NPLs. Furthermore, the period-wise analysis shows that the relevance and significance of the determinants of NPLs vary between the precrisis and postcrisis periods. It is also reflected through the intercept dummy, which is found to be significant, indicating that the financial crisis, as a global economic factor, had a significant impact on NPLs. A number of robustness tests are applied, which indicate that the results are mostly robust and consistent in terms of the significance of the explanatory variables and the direction of their relationship with the dependent variable.Practical implicationsPolicymakers and bank authorities must strive to maintain a healthy economy and implement macroprudential policies to improve the financial stability of banks and reduce credit risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is likely the first study that empirically investigates the influence of the financial crisis on NPLs in the context of GCC economies. In addition, the research spans 19 years to produce more conclusive results.

Earnings Management amid the COVID-19 Financial Crisis: The Experience of Poland

This study examines the consequences of the COVID-19 turbulence on the infor-mativeness of financial reporting. Using data from non-financial public compa-nies in Poland, our evidence documents the evolution of accrual and real earn-ings management during the pandemic period. We estimate earnings quality with cross-sectional models, observing abnormal accruals, abnormal cash flow from operations, abnormal discretionary expenditures and abnormal production costs. We contribute to the debate on earnings management during financial crises. Specifically, discretionary accruals declined significantly during the crisis. This suggests companies were less eager to inflate earnings via accruals. Polish firms also seemed to be more inclined to adopt the 'big bath' strategy to inflate future income. Additionally, the research provides support for predictions that real earn-ings management gained importance during the turbulence when the total effect of boosting income through real transactions was significant. It suggests that dur -ing the COVID-19 crisis companies based their strategies more on the probability of being detected, rather than on the cost of such activities. The study adds to the debate on the qualitative characteristics of earnings as key accounting informa-tion and its importance in corporate finance, issues that cannot be overestimated from the perspective of company stakeholders.

A Brief History of the G20 Institutional Dynamics (2008-2021)

The Group of 20 (G20) brought together leaders of the key advanced and emerging market countries to manage the 2007-08 financial and economic crises, reform the international architecture, devise a new global consensus, ensure recovery, and promote strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. Established as an anti-crisis mechanism and designated by its members as a premier forum for international economic cooperation, the G20 transformed into a global governance hub. Since its first summit, the G20 has generated high expectations and has become a subject of research and assessment for analysts, mass media, and the general public. Each summit's deliberations, decisions, and engagements have been scrutinized. Critics of the G20 claim it has lost relevance and was not capable of responding to the degradation of multilateralism, or the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis it induced. In this article, the logic of historical institutionalism is applied to explore the confluence of dynamics in the G20's evolution: demand for G20 leadership;agenda expansion and institutionalization;and legitimation, accountability, and engagements. It is concluded that the G20 changed global governance trends, creating a more inclusive global governance that integrates the G20's own extensive and diverse cooperation networks with the networks of the other international institutions and engagement groups involved in G20 policy processes. The networked governance, alongside the rotating presidency, the Troika, and various outreach mechanisms, augment the G20's authority and reduce the legitimacy gap perception. The benefits from the early decisions, established and expanding agenda, patterns of engagement, cognitive scripts, embedded ideas, and internalized norms became strong endogenous sources of stability, reinforced in positive feedback loops. Despite tensions between members, the value that the G20 provides and the global public goods it generates, real and expected returns, constitute significant incentives for the G20's continued engagement, sustain its evolving dynamics, and consolidate its path-dependency. The downside of the G20's resilience is its inability to undertake innovative initiatives in the wake of COVID-19 or to provide the powerful leadership the world needed to overcome the pandemic and the related economic and social crises. Notwithstanding these failures, the G20 remains the crucial hub of contemporary global economic governance. However, the lock-in may entail the risk of losing relevance to other institutions.

Learning financial survival from disasters

This study examines how firms learn financial survival from experience, and how stock markets price this learning. We study American firms during the Covid turmoil which had prior exposure to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Our results show firms exposed to the 2008 Crisis had 95% higher monthly stock returns during Covid compared to their unexposed peers. This highlights the role major crises play in shaping organisational resilience. The organisational learning we illustrate includes a strong element of CEO learning but is not exclusive to senior management. Our empirical findings are stronger for firms in ‘shutdown sectors' and persist after controlling for state interventions, as well as other control factors and estimation windows.